South Dunedin Future

Why this matters

South Dunedin sits on reclaimed land close to the city centre and is already exposed to frequent flooding and shallow groundwater. Climate change will increase rainfall intensity, raise sea level and elevate groundwater. Without proportionate adaptation, much of the area will face reduced functionality of buildings, infrastructure and community services with broad social and economic consequences for Dunedin.

Quick facts

• Population of more than 13,000 people
• Around 6,000 households
• Approximately 90 kilometres of roads within the area
• Key hazards assessed pluvial flooding, coastal inundation, high groundwater, coastal erosion, landslide and liquefaction

What we assessed

We produced a spatial risk assessment that quantifies exposure and vulnerability across twelve elements at risk, including buildings transport networks parks three waters infrastructure energy and telecommunications. The assessment covers present day (2024) mid-century (2060 to 2070) and late century (2100) timeframes under representative climate scenarios. The method combines geospatial hazard modelling expert validation and engagement with asset owners and mana whenua.

Key findings

• Baseline risk is high. Present day exposure is dominated by pluvial flooding and high groundwater.
• Risk increases substantially over time. By mid-century, many places and assets will face multiple hazards and declining serviceability.
• Late century projections show widespread high risk to buildings and infrastructure under high emissions scenarios because of rising sea level and groundwater.
• Roads sports fields and wastewater infrastructure are particularly sensitive to chronic groundwater impacts.
• There are cascading social and economic impacts including housing quality reduced insurability and increased cost of living.

Lessons learned


• A clear purpose and proportionate approach keep the assessment targeted and useful.
• Early and ongoing engagement with asset owners, community groups and mana whenua improves relevance and confidence in results.
• Imperfect data should be used transparently to support planning while recognising limitations.
• Risk communication must be tailored to different audiences and avoid property specific misinterpretation.
• Expert validation and a mana whenua lens strengthen decision making and cultural assessment.

What happens next

The programme is testing seven possible futures with the community, mana whenua, and other stakeholders. The next steps are to shortlist preferred adaptation pathways evaluate their efficacy using the risk baseline and develop business cases for implementation. The goal is to identify options that reduce risk and preserve wellbeing and function for the widest number of people and assets.

Acknowledgements

This vital work was led by South Dunedin Future project team at Dunedin City Council and Otago Regional Council, with support from the Kia Rōpine consultant team; Tonkin + Taylor, WSP, Beca, and G&T Connect. The project also worked with local experts and community contributors. Mana whenua engagement was facilitated by Aukaha.